Fooled by Randomness

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View books by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

is there a thesis here? - Rated
Can someone please tell me what the thesis of this book is? If so, is it something other than "Gee, sometimes really surpriving things happen"? Thanks.

Best read so far this year! - Rated
The art of the sustained polemic is not dead! In an age where bland agreement with the current fad is 'in', Nicholas Taleb has written a book that not only takes apart the pretensions of the market traders and other would-be oracles, but also reintroduces robustness into debate.
Some people won't like the style, of course. That's sad, because they will also be missing a very informative book. It really does tell you a lot about randomness in life, what it means, and possible strategies for dealing with it.
As a computer programmer I was particularly struck by the discussion of how easy it is to mistake noise for signal by looking at phenomena at the wrong scale. That's just a small part of the discussion though, others will find nuggets relating to their own experience as they read through the book.
I liked this book. I liked the irreverence - arrogance even - with which Taleb dispatches his enemies, and turns 'common sense' upside down.
Highly recommended

A superficial guide to randomness - Rated
I was looking forward to this book. The topic seemed interesting and the reviews I read were good. It turned out to have been a poor choice. Talking of poor choices Taleb's method is to create an example of where people make a poor choice due to a misunderstanding of basic statistics and philosophy of science. He then continues at length to show why he is perceptive enough to realise why they are wrong with some basic statistics and rudimentary philosophy. His problems are artificial, and I can't believe that many people with a basic grasp of reality would get them wrong in the first place.

Here is a typical example quoted from his book: "What has more value?
(a) a contract that pays you $1 million if the stock market goes down 10% on any given day in the next year; (b)a contract that pays you $1 million if the stock market goes down 10% on any given day in the next year due to a terrorist act. I expect most people to select (b)."

Taleb must hang out with some not to bright people if they go for (b). So if you have an IQ greater than 70 and answered (a) I would advise giving this book a miss. If you answered(b)then you probably need all the help you can get, so you might as well buy the book.

Irritating In The Extreme - Rated
Much like the author, I suspect. Nassim Taleb is, at least by his own reckoning, one of the smartest men alive, and this estimate is present in just about every line of this book. The really irritating aspect is that he is writing about some genuinely interesting and even fascinating concepts and what could have been an mesmerising and perhaps even life changing read is destroyed by his complete inability to write. Perhaps English is not his first language, but I think that his real problem is a prickly narcissism which turns what should be an exhilarating exploration of new and sometimes even shocking ideas into a boring, contemptuous declaration of what is wrong with the media, market traders and economists, and this is a real shame, because when he's not pronouncing, he's actually worth listening to. What he needs is a ghost writer and a bloody good editor.

a few hundred pages on...on what actually? - Rated
for the general public interested in the weird world of probability or the unknowns of the universe i'd suggest buy a popular book on quantum theory or some post-modern work of fiction instead. sky diving is another option to explore probabilities. for the more mathematically inclined reader or trading professional it's probably better to stick to Taleb's good book: dynamic hedging.